🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.